Broken Arrow Wranglers
Consolidated Data & Research Brief

Arizona, veterans, first responders, youth, mental healthcare, and wild-horse context
Prepared from the research and planning synthesized in this project • March 2026

Executive Summary

• Arizona’s mental-health burden is large and immediate: 1.308 million adults have a mental health condition, 318,000 adults have a serious mental illness, 290,000 adults report serious thoughts of suicide each year, and 1,603 Arizonans died by suicide in 2022. Youth indicators are also severe: 139,000 Arizona adolescents experience a major depressive episode annually and 79,000 have serious thoughts of suicide. [1]
• Access remains constrained. Arizona recorded 74,287 calls to 988 crisis centers in 2023, has a school-psychologist ratio of 1:1,050 (worse than the recommended 1:500), 368,000 adults reported needing but not receiving treatment, and more than 2 million residents live in communities without enough mental health professionals. [1]
• The veteran burden is both national and local. The latest VA annual report states that 6,398 veterans died by suicide in 2023 (17.5 per day). Arizona’s 2022 veteran suicide rate was 51.2 per 100,000, significantly above the national veteran rate, with 255 veteran suicide deaths reported in the state. [2][3]
• First responders face elevated risk. SAMHSA reports an estimated 30% of first responders develop behavioral-health conditions such as depression or PTSD, compared with 20% in the general population; CDC/NIOSH similarly notes first responders are among occupations at higher risk for suicide. [4][5]
• The economic burden is substantial. NAMI reports serious mental illness causes $193.2 billion in lost earnings nationally each year. Mental health and substance-use conditions led to more than 1.65 million inpatient hospitalizations in 2022, and 12.3% of adult emergency-department visits are related to mental health. [6]
• The wild-horse system provides a parallel resource-and-cost context. BLM reports more than 63,000 wild horses and burros remain in facilities costing taxpayers over $100 million annually, while the agency has stated that average lifetime cost to care for an unplaced wild horse is about $15,000 based on 2023 prices. [7][8]

At-a-Glance Metrics

1. Arizona Mental Health Snapshot

• Arizona adults with a mental health condition: 1,308,000. [1]
• Arizona adults with a serious mental illness: 318,000. [1]
• Arizona adults with serious thoughts of suicide each year: 290,000. [1]
• Arizona suicide deaths in 2022: 1,603. [1]
• Arizona adolescents with a major depressive episode each year: 139,000. [1]
• Arizona adolescents with serious thoughts of suicide each year: 79,000. [1]
• Arizona youth aged 0–17 experiencing 2+ adverse childhood experiences: 19%. [1]
• Arizona’s suicide mortality rate in 2022: 21.5 per 100,000 residents, higher than motor-vehicle and homicide rates combined. [9]
• Arizona residents who reported needing mental-health treatment but not receiving it between 2018–2019: 368,000. [1]
• People in Arizona living in a community without enough mental-health professionals: more than 2,000,000. [1]
• Calls to Arizona’s 988 Suicide & Crisis Line centers in 2023: 74,287. [1]
• Arizona K–12 school psychologist ratio: 1:1,050 versus the recommended 1:500. [1]

2. National Mental Health & Youth Burden

• More than 1 in 5 U.S. adults experienced mental illness in 2024 (23.4%, or 61.5 million people). [6]
• More than 1 in 20 U.S. adults experienced serious mental illness in 2024 (5.6%, or 14.6 million people). [6]
• More than 1 in 7 U.S. youth ages 6–17 experience a mental health disorder each year. [6]
• About 50% of all lifetime mental illness begins by age 14, and 75% by age 24. [6]
• CDC’s 2023 Youth Risk Behavior Survey found 40% of high-school students had persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness, 20% seriously considered suicide, and nearly 9% attempted suicide. [10][11]
• Mental-health and substance-use conditions led to more than 1.65 million inpatient hospitalizations in the U.S. in 2022. [6]
• About 12.3% of adult emergency-department visits each year are related to mental health. [6]
• Serious mental illness causes $193.2 billion in lost earnings across the U.S. economy each year. [6]

3. Veterans

• VA’s 2025 annual report found 6,398 veteran suicide deaths in 2023, averaging 17.5 per day. [2]
• The same report notes 47,711 suicides among all U.S. adults in 2023; veterans accounted for 6,398 of those deaths. [2]
• NAMI’s national summary notes 17.6% of U.S. veterans experienced a mental illness in 2023, equal to about 3.5 million people. [6]
• Arizona’s 2022 veteran suicide rate was 51.2 per 100,000, significantly higher than both the national veteran suicide rate (34.7) and the national general-population rate (18.4). [3]
• Arizona had 255 veteran suicide deaths in 2022. [3]
• In Arizona, the veteran suicide rate by age group ranged from 42.2 to 57.1 per 100,000 in 2022, with the highest age-specific rate among ages 55–74. [3]
• Arizona’s veteran suicide rate was significantly higher than the national veteran rate and the national general-population rate after accounting for age differences. [3]

4. First Responders

• SAMHSA’s disaster technical assistance bulletin estimates 30% of first responders develop behavioral-health conditions such as depression and PTSD, compared with 20% of the general population. [4]
• The same bulletin notes firefighters have been reported to show higher rates of suicide attempts and suicidal ideation than the general population, and estimates cited in law enforcement suggested 125–300 police officers die by suicide each year. [4]
• CDC/NIOSH states that first responders are among occupations at higher risk for suicide. [5]
• SAMHSA’s first-responder resource portal notes first responders face elevated risk of mental-health and substance-use issues, and that stigma about appearing weak remains a barrier to seeking help. [12]

5. Treatment Access, Gaps, and System Strain

• Mental Health America’s access-to-care framework classifies states ranked 39–51 as having relatively less access to insurance and mental-health care; Arizona has frequently been cited as a poor-access state in these annual summaries. [13]
• NAMI Arizona states cost is a prevailing factor in why 368,000 Arizona adults reported needing but not receiving treatment. [1]
• The school-based workforce gap is visible in Arizona’s 1:1,050 school-psychologist ratio, far below the recommended 1:500 threshold. [1]
• The 74,287 calls to Arizona’s 988 centers in 2023 show high crisis demand even before accounting for people who never seek help. [1]
• CDC notes that adolescent mental health continues to worsen and explicitly points to school connectedness as a protective factor. [11]

6. Wild Horses, Holding Costs, and Opportunity Context

• BLM’s Fiscal Year 2025 program data lists a nationwide on-range population estimate of 73,130 wild horses and burros as of March 1, 2025. [14]
• BLM reported total FY2023 wild-horse-and-burro program expenditures of $157.828 million and FY2024 obligations of $153 million. [14]
• BLM’s February 2026 update states that more than 63,000 wild horses and burros remain in facilities, costing taxpayers over $100 million annually to feed and care for. [7]
• BLM stated in November 2024 that, based on 2023 prices, average lifetime cost to care for an unplaced wild horse in BLM facilities is approximately $15,000. [8]
• The same 2024 BLM announcement said that 67,000 animals in short- and long-term holding represented more than $1 billion in taxpayer liability if not placed into private care. [8]
• BLM’s FY2025 program data shows 8,080 animals were placed into private care in FY2025. [14]

7. What the Current System Measures Well—and What It Misses

• Traditional systems produce measurable outputs such as prescriptions, sessions, claims paid, crisis calls answered, and bed utilization. Those outputs matter, but they do not directly measure belonging, identity restoration, or reconnection to purpose.
• Across the data reviewed, the recurring structural gaps are clear: treatment access remains limited, stigma suppresses help-seeking, and large groups most affected by trauma—veterans, youth, and first responders—often need sustained community and functional purpose, not only episodic clinical contact.
• The statistical picture therefore supports a dual conclusion: the burden is large and expensive, and the treatment gap is not simply a shortage-of-services problem; it is also an engagement, environment, and continuity-of-support problem.

8. Implications for Community-Based Models

• If Arizona already has 10+ ready ranch environments, access to horse-training networks, veteran leaders seeking mission, and school/community demand, then the opportunity is to convert existing assets into structured, measured, local support systems.
• External data does not by itself prove any one intervention model, but it does strongly justify investment in approaches that increase connectedness, continuity, purpose, access outside office settings, and integration with local partners.
• From a funder perspective, the data supports three investable theses: (1) the problem is large and under-served; (2) access bottlenecks are real; and (3) interventions that leverage existing assets may reduce capital intensity while increasing local reach.

9. Organization-Reported Preparedness Metrics (Internal, Not Independently Verified)

• Years in operation / refinement: 2019–current.
• In-kind resources and operational support mobilized to date: more than $1 million (organization-reported).
• People served directly: 1,000+; indirectly: thousands more (organization-reported).
• Partner ranches currently available / accessible: 10+.
• Mustang and rescue-horse access / training pipeline: 400+.
• Aligned practitioners, trainers, horsemen, business and service-provider partners: 30+.
• Volunteer and leadership network: hundreds aligned and waiting.
• Board of directors, executive leadership, business support hub, directories, systems, and AI grant/funding architecture established.
• Fundraising pipeline prepared: 50–100 mission-aligned grants/partners identified, depending on campaign stage described internally in this project.
• These figures should be used as internal operating assumptions until formalized in board-approved reporting or external diligence materials.

References

References

Prepared as a quantitative source brief for Broken Arrow Wranglers planning and proposal development.

Market Size Analysis: Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)

This section consolidates national and Arizona-level data across youth mental health, veterans, first responders, and general mental health conditions to estimate the overall population affected and the potential serviceable market for community-based restoration programs like Broken Arrow Wranglers.

1. Total Addressable Market (TAM) – United States

Adults with Mental Health Conditions: ≈60 million

Youth experiencing major mental health challenges: ≈15 million

Veterans experiencing mental health challenges: ≈6–7 million

First responders experiencing behavioral health conditions: ≈700,000

Estimated unique Americans experiencing identity, trauma, or isolation crisis: ≈65–75 million

2. Serviceable Available Market (SAM) – Arizona

Total veterans in Arizona: ≈470,000

Disabled veterans in Arizona: ≈150,000–160,000

Estimated first responders in Arizona: ≈42,000

First responders experiencing behavioral health challenges: ≈12,000–16,000

Youth experiencing major mental health struggles: ≈200,000+

Adults experiencing mental health challenges: ≈1.1 million

Estimated unique Arizonans experiencing the crisis: ≈1.3–1.6 million

3. Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) – Broken Arrow Program Capacity

Estimated capacity per Outpost: 500–1,200 participants annually depending on program mix

2026 goal: 3 operational Outposts

Estimated annual reach at 3 Outposts: 1,500–3,000 individuals

5-year expansion potential: 100 Outposts nationally

Estimated annual national reach at scale: 100,000+ participants

4. Economic Impact of the Crisis

Total U.S. annual cost of mental health crisis: $300B–$500B per year

VA healthcare system expenditures: $300B+ annually

Major cost drivers: lost productivity, healthcare, addiction treatment, justice system costs, family support services

5. Key Strategic Insight for Funders

Approximately 150,000 disabled veterans live in Arizona.

More than 200,000 youth in Arizona report significant mental health struggles.

This creates a potential need pool of over 350,000 individuals within driving distance of potential Outposts.

Statewide estimates suggest 1.3–1.6 million Arizonans experience the broader identity, trauma, and mental health crisis addressed by Broken Arrow programs.